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Thematic

Global Themes 2020 – What to watch for

BY Shaun Cochran / Dec 2019

In 2020, we are likely to be bombarded with an array of conflicting views from the street, supported by equally mixed data points and indicators. In a transitory year where momentum and growth tilts may not be rewarding, investors should temper that risk by adding some out-of-favour value ideas.
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Navigator – 2020 Vision

BY Adrian Mowat & Thomas Li & Carl Hui / Nov 2019

Off the tightrope and out on a limb, we finally have 20/20 vision on how emerging markets could start to outperform. We are calling for an end to this underperformance with 2020 EM EPS growth likely to exceed that of their developed counterparts.
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Global Navigator – Pork and planes

BY Adrian Mowat / Dec 2019

A trade deal may be impractical, but it is a significant turning point. How does the US-China deal, FOMC and UK general election influence Navigator’s strategy?
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Price action - US dollar topping

BY Laurence Balanco / Nov 2019

Laurence Balanco sees the US dollar index showing signs of topping out. The euro, Swedish krona, won, renminbi, New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar all reflect similar reversal patterns and are long trades versus the US dollar.
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India reboot

BY Mahesh Nandurkar & Abhinav Sinha / Nov 2019

Mahesh Nandurkar expects a powered-up economy to emerge as structural reforms have helped reboot Indian markets. Lower inflation is driving interest rates down while the insolvency code and NPL clean-up are making banks’ balance sheets healthier.
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Why should you care about 5G?

BY Shaun Cochran / Sep 2019

Group Head of Research Shaun Cochran talks through the fourth edition of CLSA’s Theorality bible, explaining why we should care about 5G being the key internet change for beyond 2019.
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Why the new face of cybersecurity is small data, not big data

BY David Edelman / Sep 2019

MIT scholar David Edelman argues that the future of cybersecurity threats will be centred around small data not big data, and that small vulnerabilities in systems can lead to large-scale attacks.
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What is elastic thinking?

BY Leonard Mlodinow / Sep 2019

Theoretical Physicist Leonard Mlodinow illuminates on elastic thinking versus analytical thinking and explores the psychology and neuroscience behind it.
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What’s next for global economic growth in the coming two decades?

BY Ian Goldin / Sep 2019

Oxford Professor Ian Goldin expects the global economic growth levels to remain above the long-term averages with India and China at the lead, despite of the inherent risks of globalisation brought by the increased integration of financial and political systems.
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How are the US central bank responding to macroeconomic volatility?

BY Randall Kroszner / Sep 2019

What central bankers say and do can move markets, but it is often difficult to interpret what they mean. The University of Chicago’s Randall Kroszner provides an insider’s view on how officials at the US Fed and other central banks make decisions.
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Is it the end of the American upturn?

BY Eric Fishwick / Sep 2019

CLSA’s Chief Economist Eric Fishwick kicked off the 26th CLSA Investors’ Forum with a compelling assessment of the current state of global markets, expecting a shallow US recession in 2020.
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Theorality - Fintech

BY Shaun Cochran / Oct 2019

Blockchain has moved closer to its deserved legitimacy and with an increasing payments focus: the true finance disruptor. For stablecoins, the logical next step is to move from proprietary to industry models.
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Navigator - Groundhog on a tightrope

BY Adrian Mowat / Oct 2019

MSCI Emerging Markets remain technically weak, but global strategist Adrian Mowat sees improving trends in semis, ecommerce and selected autos, including the EV supply chain. Recession fears and low rates debate will intensify into 2020.
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China’s digital natives reshape retail

BY Oliver Matthew & Ka Yu Cheung / Sep 2018

Good medicine: Stricter regulations restore faith in scandal-tainted industry

BY David Li & Sandra Sun & Ethan Cui & Lily Qi / May 2019

China property: Tier-2 cities compete for tenants with talent

BY Nicole Wong & Alvin Huang / Feb 2018

China set to mine greater opportunities from cloud adoption

BY Elinor Leung & Sally Chan & Ashley Xu & Nathan Wang / May 2019

Eye on Asian Economies - The end of the American upturn

BY Eric Fishwick / Sep 2019

Our economics team builds a shallow US recession into its Asia ex-Japan forecasts. This cuts our growth forecasts by 0.5ppts in 2019 and 2020. Disinflation already dominates and our forecasts are below consensus. Monetary easing will continue. We see a softer US dollar in 1H20.
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Hydrogen rises

BY Christopher Richter / Sep 2019

While previous waves of enthusiasm for hydrogen petered out, this time is different as numerous global companies are rising to the challenge. Guest author David Hart says hydrogen is an indispensable option for combating a grim climate-change future.
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Theorality 2019

BY Shaun Cochran / Sep 2019

Theorality 2019 updates investors on game-changing transformations that will define portfolio performance. AI spreads deeper into our other themes, but we sense a general slowing in the progress of Advanced transport and Healthtech.
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The transformative power of Chinese millennials

BY Oliver Matthew & Ka Yu Cheung / Sep 2018

No longer a laggard: China’s 5G rollout will boost cloud computing investment

BY Elinor Leung & Sally Chan & Ashley Xu & Nathan Wang / May 2019

Shot in the arm: Private sector poised for growth in China’s vaccine market

BY David Li & Sandra Sun & Ethan Cui & Lily Qi / May 2019

Hong Kong Property: How to dine free for 100 years

BY Nicole Wong & Alvin Huang / Feb 2019

Economics - World trade

BY Eric Fishwick / Aug 2019

World trade and manufacturing continue to weaken. In absolute terms, US demand remains the healthiest, but it has started to decline. Without an acceleration in demand from elsewhere, growth will become increasingly negative, even on a moderate US slowdown.
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Synthetic biology - Redesigning life

BY Shaun Cochran / Sep 2019

Synthetic biology is genetic biotech made more efficient and powerful with the addition of engineering principles, robotics and AI. In a fascinating CLSA U Blue Book, guest author Dr Ellen Jorgensen explains all and profiles the key companies bringing this industry to life.
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Theorality - The intersection of business theory and business reality

BY Shaun Cochran / Sep 2019

Shaun Cochran will walk through the fourth edition of CLSA ’s Theorality thematic bible at the 26th CLSA Forum in Hong Kong, 9-13 September.
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Global - Eye on Asian Economics

BY Eric Fishwick / Jun 2019

The world economy has fast forwarded to the slow-growth, disinflationary state we forecast for 2H19. Asian growth will slow but we do not expect recession. And the next easing cycle has begun. Rate cuts will be all but ubiquitous in the second half.
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Korea, Japan and Balkanisation

BY Matthew Sigel / Jun 2019

Structural rifts among China’s neighbours further raises the risk that the “Asian Century” may fail to meet lofty expectations due to historical conflicts rather than economic ones.
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Theorality - Half-time review

BY Shaun Cochran / Jul 2019

Head of research Shaun Cochran highlights the state of play of our 2019 investment themes. At this late stage of the cycle, we transition from the wavering (formerly leading) tech sector towards value, property and financials.
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Paranoia pays

BY NASSIM TALEB / Sep 2018

How to survive and profit from blow ups
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Ethical AI

BY KATHRYN HUME / Sep 2018

Ensuring machine learning reflects our values
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Redesigning life

BY Shaun Cochran / Jun 2019

Synthetic biology is genetic biotech made more efficient and powerful with the addition of engineering principles, robotics and AI. In a new CLSA U Blue Book, Dr Ellen Jorgensen explains all and profiles the key companies bringing this industry to life.
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Technicals - Tactical low

BY Laurence Balanco / Jun 2019

The global market selloff in late-May worked off the bullish sentiment extremes seen in late April, with sentiment now close to pessimistic extremes. This coupled with emerging-market outperformance suggests a tactical low is in.
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Beyond Beyond Meat

BY Charles Yonts, CLSA / Jun 2019

Our love for meat is leading to an environmental catastrophe. A new wave of plant-based proteins promises to deliver the nutrition and flavour that we want without the ill effects. We recently hosted a lunch with plant-based protein pioneer, David Yeung.
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Trumponomics

BY Edward Alden / Sep 2018

Why we should take Trump at his word on trade?
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Future of Chinese Innovation

BY Edward Tse / Sep 2018

Beyond core competencies: What next for China innovation?
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CG Watch - China Reforms

BY Charles Yonts, CLSA & Jamie Allen, ACGA / Dec 2018

China's reform agenda still leaves room for tighter CG rules and practices
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CG Watch - Australia

BY Charles Yonts, CLSA & Jamie Allen, ACGA / Dec 2018

Australia top for corporate governance despite bank scandals
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Digital drones, drugs and dollars

BY Shaun Cochran / May 2019

Theorality expects a digitally driven productivity revolution over the next two to three decades. Structural inflation looks unlikely in the absence of extreme monetary/fiscal policy options. The patient can simply buy very high quality long duration debt and wait.
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Global semiconductors - Blacklisted

BY Sebastian Hou / May 2019

Huawei's blacklisting by the US government in May has profound implications for the global semiconductor supply chain. Sebastian Hou tells investors what to look out for as he expects a large reset after the overhyped 5G expectations of 1H19.
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The Komodo - On the ground in Indonesia

BY Felicia Tjiasaka / May 2019

In Indonesia, start-ups have been venturing into the online credit “pay later” model in an effort to increase transaction value per user. Felicia Tjiasaka sees financial inclusion on an upswing, but the risk is a higher debt burden.
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Where next for corporate governance in Asia?

BY Charles Yonts, CLSA & Jamie Allen, ACGA / Dec 2018

Asia faces tough questions on corporate governance
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Gender diversity

BY Charles Yonts, CLSA & Jamie Allen, ACGA / Dec 2018

Australia, India and Malaysia lead Asia’s gender diversity efforts
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Privacy as a product

BY Shaun Cochran / Apr 2019

March marked a rare occasion for Theorality: a positive take on Facebook’s prospects. The New York Times reported that the tech firm is working on a secretive project to issue a crypto currency to facilitate instant payments. The potential scale of the offering makes this a story investors must track.
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China outlook 2020 – Step into a New Era

BY Steven Yang / Dec 2019

Amid challenging trade relations with the USA, we expect China to step up its transition from growth focused on quantity to quality in 2020. Stabilising economic expansion and an end to destocking support earnings fundamentals.
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Eye on Asian Economies – The curse of reflexivity

BY Eric Fishwick / Dec 2019

We make no changes to our G3 forecast this quarter. Our Asian forecasts are based on the view that the US is the swing factor in a global forecast and that its slowdown will continue to mid-2020.
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Taiwan - Printed circuit boards – Stacking up nicely

BY Sam Kao / Dec 2019

With the arrival of a wave of 5G tech such as smartphones, high-performance PCs and AI robots, printed circuit board (PCB) makers are gearing up to feed the growing appetite for larger size and higher layer count.
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China - Ecommerce makeover

BY Oliver Matthew / Nov 2019

The rise of China’s internet has transformed many aspects of consumption. Livestreaming has increased massively over the past three years, and from a consumer-company perspective, marketing teams have had to reconsider advertising's role in the PRC.
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Indonesia airports - A big mission

BY Jonathan Mardjuki / Nov 2019

Given the lack of major airport development in Indonesia over the past 20 years, Jonathan Mardjuki highlights the government’s efforts to build and expand infrastructure through airport operator Angkasa Pura.
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China Strategy - Undervalued SOEs

BY Steven Yang / Oct 2019

The fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee will focus on modernising China’s systems and governance capacity. Steven Yang discusses the possible political tone as well as near-term implications in regards to listed SOEs.
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Hong Kong property - No takers

BY Alvin Wong / Nov 2019

As Hong Kong property slumps under the weight of the ongoing US-China trade war and local protests, Alvin Wong introduces an absolute-DPS analysis to help pinpoint the cycle bottom more accurately than using NAV.
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India Strategy - Personal income tax stimulus?

BY Mahesh Nandurkar / Oct 2019

Notwithstanding existing fiscal worries, media articles indicate a possible personal income tax rate cut under the new direct tax code. Personal income tax data analysis indicates this could impact tax collections by c.Rs1-1.2tn in the first year.
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China - ChinAsean ties - Malaysia

BY Steven Yang / Sep 2019

Leveraging CITICS and CLSA expertise, the joint report on China and Malaysia’s strengthening relationship marks the first in a series on ChinAsean ties that will explore secular trends and identify key winners for China and within the region.
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India strategy - The big deal

BY Mahesh Nandurkar / Sep 2019

The government’s 10-percentage-point cut of the marginal corporate income tax rate and 18ppt tax cut for new manufacturing companies have sent a strong message that it is willing to take bold steps to revive economic growth.
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Korean strategy - Scared no more

BY Paul Choi / Sep 2019

The Korean market is a contrarian’s field of dreams: a favourable base effect, weaker currency, liquidity and a potential inflection in the DRAM price all bode well for the economy ahead of further catalysts.
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China healthcare – New life, new vision

BY David Li / Jul 2019

China’s healthcare spending is steadily rising along with its economic growth. Reforms are prompting hospitals to improve services and pushing development of the private sector.
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India - Growing smartphone migration

BY Deepti Chaturvedi / Aug 2019

Assuming a two-year replacement cycle, the migration from feature phones to smartphones in India has picked up, with average quarterly feature-phone upgrades rising from 7.7m in FY19 to 8.9m in 1QFY20.
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Japan - Data force! - Large platforms fly into the future

BY Oliver Matthew / Aug 2019

Oliver Matthew’s latest proprietary survey of 1,000 Japanese internet and mobile users shows the battle to dominate remains heated. Oliver explores mobile communications, ecommerce and cashless payments.
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China - Tug of war

BY Steven Yang / Jul 2019

Compared to our defensive stance in 2H19, the latest G20 and upcoming US Federal Open Market Committee provide short-term clarity. With investors valuing quality growth more, we see continued easing policy as good news in a "no deal" world.
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Malaysia - Stay tuned

BY Sue Lin Lim / Jul 2019

Optimism in Malaysia is gradually reviving. Our three catalysts for the market are panning out: foreign interest revival; possible earnings surprises; and sustained positive macro data.
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Philippines - Age of disruption!

BY Marc Espino / Jul 2019

Online platforms have lowered entry barriers, causing established boundaries to crash. Firms able to adapt and execute digital capabilities will benefit most from this shift. When catalysts converge, opportunities will expand across multiple sectors.
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Japan - Activists & the AGM season cheat sheet

BY Nicholas Smith / Jun 2019

There is no list of shareholder proposals until the voting is over. Benthos sifted through convocation documents so you don’t have to - and has picked out the most profitable ones.
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Asia tourist - Chinese tourists still coming

BY Anthony Nafte / May 2019

To boost tourism, governments have focused on attracting more Chinese tourists. This is a realistic, but policies should not centre exclusively on mainland travellers. Overreliance runs the risk of an abrupt reversal due to geopolitical tensions.
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Thailand - More downside risks

BY Weerapat Wonk-urai / Jun 2019

We see more downside risks to Thai GDP and bank-loan growth from shrinking exports, low public investment, falling oil prices and a rise in special-mention loans.
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A stronger verdict for Modi

BY Mahesh Nandurkar / May 2019

With the bulk of its disruptive reforms now behind it, India’s freshly energised government can focus on growth. The ruling BJP took the lead in 302 seats, 20 more than it won in 2014, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s new absolute majority ensures policy continuity.
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Corporate governance - Disrupters in the ecosystem

BY Jay Defibaugh / Apr 2019

In a new report, CLSA U guest author, Stephen Givens, details the impediments investors still face in their battle to unlock trapped value and raise returns.
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US-China trade talks Renminbi risk

BY Eric Fishwick / May 2019

There is no reason to see the renminbi’s recent weakness as temporary, US-China trade wars will be recurrent. But the PBoC is defending CNY7/USD; it will continue to do so.
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Philippines - Lots of people!

BY Alfred Dy / Apr 2019

Robust population growth will see the Philippines’ strong domestic story continue to gain momentum in coming years. This has positive implications for property developers, consumer companies and quasi-consumer plays.
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China - A US$1tn deal

BY Haixu Qiu / Apr 2019

An additional US$1tn in imports from the USA over a six-year period would further integrate the two leading economies, thereby reducing the risk of “economic delinking” and the consequent damage to China’s supply chain.
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Eye on Asian economics – Stall speed

BY Eric Fishwick / Mar 2019

The slowdown in developed-economy demand continues, with Europe the weakest region. But it is a collapse in Asian trade in 1Q19 that has taken global trade growth negative for the first time since 2012.
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FONGO Down Under

BY Christopher Wood / Mar 2019

Australian housing loan commitments are likely to keep plunging so long as banks keep assessing a borrower’s ability to service a mortgage on an assumed 7.25% borrowing rate even though it is now possible to get a mortgage at a market rate of 3.55%.
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Gallop to glory: Thailand and Vietnam

BY Anthony Nafte / Mar 2019

US protectionism has started the ball rolling for Asia supply-chain realignment. Vietnam’s continuing foreign-direct-investment surge and Thailand’s established supply chains leave both well placed to meet the challenge.
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Industrial evolution

BY Sarina Lesmina / Mar 2019

Indonesia’s unique government-endorsed B2B models are attracting increasing investment, especially from China. With the length of toll roads doubling in the past five years and improving connectivity, industrial evolution is paving the way to sustained growth.
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Japan technology – Coming back

BY Yu Yoshida / Dec 2019

We forecast expanding demand for servers as well as for smartphones as 5G services roll out to form a wafer fab equipment market for memory and expect this to spur a rebound for investment in back-end process semiconductor production equipment.
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Indonesia – The Komodo – Time to monetise

BY Felicia Tjiasaka / Dec 2019

One of ecommerce’s largest shopping festivals, 12.12, just closed. To better understand trends, we visited one of Shopee’s star sellers, Ace Fashion. Interestingly, we found that most online shops have begun to monetise in 2019, and believe the road to ecommerce profitability is on track.
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Indian pharma – Turning a corner

BY Alok Dalal / Nov 2019

A focus on growing key brands and increasing acceptance of patented products has boosted recent performance of multinational pharma companies in India. The multiplier effect generated by power brands and pipeline launches should sustain this trend.
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Gray’s China: Anatomy of a burgeoning healthcare system

BY David Li & Sandra Sun & Ethan Cui / Nov 2019

The complexity of China’s healthcare sector can be overwhelming for investors unfamiliar with its anatomy. To bring it to life, David Li and his team take a deep dive into this burgeoning industry and provide go-to text for essential intel.
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Japan gaming - Mario’s China jump

BY Jay Defibaugh / Nov 2019

With Nintendo set to make a full-scale entry into China, Jay Defibaugh gauges awareness of the brand in a proprietary survey. Mario will be jumping for joy as Chinese gamers are not only familiar with the franchise but also keen to buy its products.
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Technology - Software as a service

BY Alec So & Timothy Lee / Nov 2019

Software as a service (SaaS) applications are gaining traction as China seeks to improve labour productivity. We initiate on SaaS leaders Kingdee and Yonyou while TravelSky, A-Living, Country Garden Services and Greentown Service should also benefit.
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CLSA U Blue Books - Network disruption

BY Oliver Matthew & Bill Rojas / Oct 2019

Guest author Bill Rojas says Rakuten’s entry into the mobile arena sends a warning signal to the nation’s telcos. Its value proposition - combining 4G/5G service with a digital ecosystem - will make it a key disruptive force in the consumer space.
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Taiwan fitness - Let’s do it

BY Ken Shih / Sep 2019

: Keeping fit is big business. Planet Fitness, budget gyms, and home-equipment-provider Peloton have done much of the heavy lifting, helping pump up global gym membership. People in Taiwan are also willing to spend more when it comes to their health.
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China consumer – Small happiness

BY Jisheng Liu / Oct 2019

After a hard day’s work, stressed out Chinese desire a better quality of life at home to relax and re-energise. Jisheng Liu sees multiyear growth opportunities in small appliance categories where attractive products engender happiness and wellbeing.
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China internet - Cloud-software optimisation, Adapting to adversity

BY Elinor Leung / Sep 2019

China internet has suffered due to strict new regulations, a maturing market and ad-space oversupply, but sector firms have adapted well to the adversity. Elinor Leung provides an in-depth analysis of this colourful environment.
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China hydropower - Dammed good

BY Johnny Lau / Sep 2019

Hydropower is the cheapest source of clean energy in China at the moment. The major domestic hydro IPPs have strong cashflow and a history of increasing dividend payments, making them one of the most defensive sectors in the A-share market.
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Cloud-software optimisation - Lightening the load

BY Sebastian Hou / Sep 2019

: The next decade will see rising segmentation of growth in the serverless-computing space as services take off and leave hardware behind. This will free up vital infrastructure and afford easier access to the cloud with new software stacks.
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Korean autos - Secular dynamics

BY Dohyoung Kim / Aug 2019

Peter Kong recently met Hong Leong Bank and property-services firm Savills Malaysia to better appreciate on-the-ground dynamics and understand the conflicting evidence surrounding a recovery in the residential property and mortgage market.
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Korean convenience stores - Game on

BY Brian Lee / Aug 2019

Despite a 20% sales compound annual growth rate over the past five years, the market has concerns about further growth potential within Korea's convenience store industry.
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Global internet - Secrets of social media

BY Oliver Matthew / Aug 2019

Social media continues to be a large target for advertising companies around the world. CLSA U guest speaker Simon Kemp provides insights into the quickly evolving world of advertising and the implications for the firms involved.
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Korea memory - Rally in DRAM spot price

BY Sanjeev Rana / Jul 2019

PC DRAM's spot price rallied by 8% on potential production cuts at Korean memory suppliers and anxiety about Japan's export restrictions. Sanjeev Rana sees a possibility of mild ASP upturn for some NAND products in 2H.
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Malaysia property - Resident experts

BY Peter Kong / Jul 2019

Korea memory - Bracing for uncertainty

BY Sanjeev Rana / Jun 2019

The trade war and Huawei issue have created uncertainty over second-half demand and are likely to lead to deeper-than-expected price erosion and a delay in the earnings recovery.
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Australian consumer - Margin tug-o-war

BY Richard Barwick / Jun 2019

Despite growing sales, supermarkets’ profitability is under pressure from new entrants and rising online penetration. We look at two Australian chains with similar growth outlooks, Coles and Woolworths, and major wholesaler Metcash.
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Australian banks - End of days

BY Ed Henning / May 2019

Australian banks have underperformed since March 2015's peaks. The Coalition re-election is positive, the Royal Commission benign, weaker housing prices manageable, forward earnings growth is negligible and capital risks remain.
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Gaming - It's almost raining yen!

BY Jay Defibaugh / May 2019

With Japan’s casino gaming market set to be the world’s third largest, Jay Defibaugh looks at progress on legalisation, estimated revenue, potential integrated-resort locations and key players.
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Philippine food services - Let’s eat!

May 2019

The Philippines is enjoying prosperous household growth. Consumers’ stronger propensity for eating out, new foods and novel dining experiences are incentivising foodservice players to ramp up their zoomtown store networks, driving a strong secular growth story.
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Korea autos - Virtuosity

BY Dohyoung Kim / Apr 2019

With powertrain upgrades, better segment positioning, improved pricing and a favourable won exchange rate, Korean automakers are orchestrating a virtuous cycle.
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Thai oil & gas - Pumping up

BY Narongpand Lisahapanya / Apr 2019

For Thai oil firms, petrol-station chains are an asset-light business through which they can sell fuel at wholesale prices and realise attractive margins.
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Japan retail - Wish fulfilment

BY Oliver Matthew / Apr 2019

Japanese retailing faces three major challenges in the next decade: depopulation and a contracting consumer market; labour shortages; and ecommerce. CLSA U specialists Michael Causton and Roy Larke give a flyover of this evolving and dynamic space.
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Courting Miss Saigon

BY Yew Kiang Wong / Mar 2019

Rising foreign direct investment, higher disposable income and rapid urbanisation could see Vietnam’s housing market experience similar growth to that of China’s two decades ago. Our proprietary survey confirms Singapore developers’ strong franchise among local buyers.
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Skin Gold China 4

BY Oliver Matthew / Feb 2019

Our fourth proprietary survey of Chinese cosmetics consumers provides an in-depth look into purchasing behaviour and brand perception. Premium-segment success is crucial, given the category’s growing importance, with opportunities for Japanese and Korean luxury brands.
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E-bikes - Taking charge

BY Ken Shin / Mar 2019

Electric bikes continue to gain traction in Europe, and sales in the USA will shift up a gear as regulations take shape. A rebounding China market will also be a stabiliser for the traditional two-wheeler.
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Global smartphone cameras - More is more

BY Cherry Ma / Feb 2019

Smartphone photography is on a roll, with handsets launched year to date packed with two to five back cameras. Cherry Ma expects camera-lens volume to reach 3.76bn units in 2019, increasing to 6.38bn units by 2023.
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