Return flight
Japan is an alluring destination with a bounty of attractions. Furthermore, it is now about 20% cheaper than in 2019. We expect 27.3m visitors by end of 2023, 14% below 2019 levels. We expect Chinese visitor numbers to accelerate from May to 4.7m by the end of 2023, 49% of the level of 2019, and we further anticipate the 2019 hurdle to be surmounted in 2024. With a weaker yen, we forecast ¥7.6tn in tourist spending by 2025, 60% higher than in 2019.
Welcome growth
Tourists in Japan spent ¥4,814bn in 2019, up from ¥2,028bn in 2014, an 18.9% Cagr. Foreign tourist spending in 2011 accounted for a mere 0.26% of GDP, rising to 0.86% in 2019. If spending were to rise to ¥12tn by 2030 based on 60m tourists and ¥200,000 average spend, that would imply a revenue Cagr of 9% over the next seven years, contributing more than 2% of GDP. Welcoming more Western visitors amid a further weakening in the yen could boost revenue even further.